Thursday, December 1, 2011

Dan Frommer shares one of his bad predictions

Predictions are fun to make and usually fun to forget. It's so easy to write about what you think will happen, and awkward or painful to look back and compare that to what really took place.

Dan Frommer of the cool SplatF blog took himself to task for an old prediction about how Palm and Flash could create a powerhouse mobile partnership ("The Dumbest Thing I've Ever Written About Flash"). Here's what he wrote in 2007 in Business Insider:

If Palm and Adobe could work together on a stunning user interface and offer the massive community of Flash developers wide-open access to a solid phone platform on good-looking devices, it could be a huge hit.

And here's the November 2011 view (after Palm had been purchased by HP and then set adrift, and Adobe announced that it would no longer develop Flash for mobile):

But it was so impractical! Not just the idea of Palm and Adobe banding together — they actually did try to work together on Flash for WebOS devices, and it still failed. But the idea of Flash working well on a mobile/touch device was so far-fetched in 2007, and is still pretty looney today. And that’s a big reason why Adobe is now winding down mobile Flash development.

Bad predictions are eight for a dollar in the tech world, but a sense of humor and self-reflection, as Frommer practices here, are much rarer commodities.

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