In uncertain ventures, the value of a crystal-clear goal

I had the opportunity to attend the 99u Conference in New York last week. It was a blast. The most noteworthy presentation for me was from Sebastian Thrun, the driving force behind Google's self-driving car and Google Glass, and now the founder of online learning provider Udacity. Thrum was awarded the Alva Award, a lifetime-achievement prize for invention.

Many of Thrun's remarks were relevant to our work here. One that really struck me was this: When planning a new, uncertain endeavor, a crisp, clear objective is necessary. Planning the path is unimportant - the path emerges as you work. But a very clear objective allows for a clear assessment of success or failure, and an understanding of how far away you are from your goal.

Here's an example from the Self-Driving Car project. After Thrun's Stanford team had completed the 2007 Darpa Urban Challenge (a very clear objective in itself), Thrun and his team needed a new goal. He had moved to Google, and in collaboration with Google's executives eventually decided on a 1000-mile course all around the Bay Area, covering streets, highways, etc. It was an audacious leap from winning a contest on a closed course to confronting the chaos of real city and suburban driving.

But the goal was clear. Failure was easy to assess - if the car did not complete the entire 1000 miles, that was a failure. This enabled Thrun and his team to use a Build-Fail-Fix-Test-Fail-Fix-etc. approach. This rapid failure-iteration cycle allowed them to very quickly advance in capability for the self-driving car - from finishing a 60-mile course, to the 1000 mile test, to the current state where Google's fleet of self-driving cars tours the Bay Area on a regular basis, covering more than 300,000 miles so far without incident.

Having a clear objective allowed Thrun to focus on planning and executing the next steps, instead of wondering, arguing about, and/or redefining what success meant. This is crucial in an uncertain environment. The objective is reached by taking individual steps, every day, toward the goal, and using failures to help adjust the course toward the objective.

We can use this in our everyday work. When we embark on an uncertain venture - a new job, perhaps, or a new business venture, or a sales campaign - we should aim for a clear, timed measure of success, and share that with people who are helping us. A clear objective will allow the next steps you plan to be headed in the right direction, it will allow you to clearly establish whether you've succeeded or failed, and enable you to intelligently change course when required.

[Photo from GlacierNPS via Flickr Creative Commons]