Friday, August 19, 2011

"All failures of strategy are rooted in the assumption that outcomes are predictable"

Marvelous quote from Horace Dediu in a post from hbr.org. Dediu is comparing HP's and Apple's strategy approaches in the wake of HP's exit from the PC and mobile businesses. The entire post is excellent, especially his illustration of HP's and Apple's radically different competitive positions at a key turning point in 2001.

But that's the nature of unforeseeable growth: you cannot foresee what will happen and plans never work out. Data and planning don't help. The lesson is that you need to plan for that which cannot be planned. When you are at your peak you must assume failure is imminent and when you are at the trough you must assume success is inevitable.


All failures of strategy are rooted in the assumption that outcomes are predictable.

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