In this TED talk, Harford talks about complex systems and that their common characteristic: they progress through trial and error. One example is the US economic system. Harford's observation: "10% of US businesses disappear every year." Therefore, the system is being renewed, constantly, by new businesses springing up, others adjusting and advancing and some going away.
In other words, having something turn out differently from your expectations may be a failure or mistake but not a disaster. It likely is a piece of information that you can use in your next attempt.
Echoes here of Edison, possibly the greatest trial-and-errorist in the modern age ("a negative result is as useful to me as a positive result").
Harford encourages us to be open and patient with trying and failing. He has great observations on things like educators' insisting there are "correct" answers to every question posed and politicians' confidence that their plan will "fix" an economy.
Another quote: "Is is much easier to lay down the law.... Uncertainty, fallibility, being challenged may hurt.... 'It is very difficult to make good mistakes.'"
Watch it:
No comments:
Post a Comment